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JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES: MOST INFLUENTIAL ECONOMIST
OF 20TH CENTURY
þ IN 1936, ECONOMICS TRANSFORMED BY JMK'S THE
GENERAL THEORY OF EMPLOYMENT, INTEREST, AND MONEY
þ IN MIDST OF GREATEST DEPRESSION IN WORLD HISTORY.
KEYNES BOOK OFFERED HOPE.
þ IT DIAGNOSED THE PATIENT AS SERIOUSLY
ILL,
BUT NOT BEYOND
HOPE.
þ IT PRESCRIBED REMEDIES TO RESTORE
ITS
HEALTH.
þ IT WAS ONE OF THE THREE KEY BOOKS IN THE HISTORY
OF ECONOMICS:
þ ADAM SMITH'S WEALTH OF NATIONS.
þ KARL MARX'S DAS CAPITAL.
þ J.M. KEYNES THE GENERAL THEORY
OF
EMPLOYMENT,
INTEREST, AND MONEY.
þ BORN IN CAMBRIDGE, ENGLAND IN 1883, SON OF
PROMINENT ECONOMIST --> EDUCATED AT ETON &
CAMBRIDGE --> STUDIED ECONOMICS & PHILOSOPHY.
þ BRILLIANT SNOB, ENGAGING PERSONALITY, MIND THAT
COULD PENETRATE TO ESSENTIALS OF A PROBLEM.
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JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES: MOST INFLUENTIAL ECONOMIST
OF 20TH CENTURY [2]
þ KEYNES WAS BRITISH TREASURY'S REP TO VERSAILLES
PEACE CONF IN 1919.
þ BELIEVED STABLE PEACE DEPENDED ON
MAGNANIMOUS SETTLEMENT &
REALISTIC
REPARATIONS FOR GERMANY.
þ ALLIES DEMANDED HUGE REPARATIONS
PAYMENTS
FROM GERMANY, IGNORED ECONOMIC
REALITIES.
þ KEYNES RESIGNED, WROTE THE ECONOMIC
CONSEQUENCES OF THE PEACE.
þ FORECAST BREAKDOWN OF AGREEMENT.
þ FORECAST
RESULTING ECONOMIC TURMOIL.
þ KEYNES DISTINGUISHED BETWEEN SAVINGS &
INVESTMENT, THE DIFFERENT GOALS THAT MOTIVATED
THEM.
þ SAY'S LAW SAID: SAVINGS = INVESTMENT
þ JMK: THE TWO NOT ALWAYS EQUAL.
þ IF SAVINGS > INVESTMENT --> ECON
ACTIVITY
DOWN.
þ IF INVESTMENT > SAVINGS --> ECON
ACTIVITY
UP.
þ JMK ADVOCATED A MANAGED MONETARY
SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN EQUALITY BETWEEN SAVINGS
&
INVESTMENT.
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JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES: MOST INFLUENTIAL ECONOMIST
OF 20TH CENTURY [2]
þ REGULAR FLOW OF SAVINGS ENTERS CAPITAL MKTS FROM
CONSUMERS WITH FIXED INCOMES.
þ BUT PRIVATE CAPITAL INVESTMENT IS HIGHLY
VOLATILE.
þ THE DISPARITIES BETWEEN FLOW OF SAVINGS & FLOW OF
INVESTMENT ARE AT THE ROOT OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE.
þ PROFITS & SAVINGS MUST BE SPEND IMMEDIATELY OR
THE CIRCULAR FLOW OF MONEY IN THE ECONOMY WOULD
BE INTERRUPTED --> OUTPUT FALLS --> UNEMPLOYMENT
RISES.
þ KEYNES ARGUED THAT CONSUMPTION MUST BE STIMULATED
TO KEEP PACE WITH PRODUCTION.
þ WAS CONTRARY TO ORTHODOX VIEW THAT
PRODUCTION CREATED ITS OWN
DEMAND.
þ CHANGE TAKING PLACE IN ECONOMY. AFTER 100 YRS OF
INDUSTRIALIZATION, CENTER OF GRAVITY SHIFTING
FROM INVESTOR TO CONSUMER.
þ IN EARLY INDUSTRIALIZATION, MOST
IMPORTANT
SOURCE OF GROWTH = CAPITAL
INVESTMENT IN
INDUSTRIES THAT SUPPORTED OTHER
INDUSTRIES -
- E.G. STEEL, COAL, MACHINERY,
RAILROADS.
þ BUT AS INDUSTRIALIZATION ADVANCED,
INCOME
ROSE, & SPENDING &
SAVING PATTERNS OF
CONSUMERS BECAME MORE IMPORTANT.
HIGHER
INCOMES ENABLED CONSUMERS TO
SPEND GREATER
SUMS ON DURABLE GOODS LIKE
HOUSES & HOME
FURNISHINGS, AUTOS, ELEC APPLIANCES.
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JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES: MOST INFLUENTIAL ECONOMIST
OF 20TH CENTURY [2]
þ CONSUMER-ORIENTED INDUSTRIES BECAME BELLWETHERS
OF PROSPERITY.
þ DEPRESSION --> INCOME FELL --> SPENDING DECLINED.
þ SOLUTION? A LARGE INCREASE IN SPENDING --> THIS
COMMON SENSE VIEW LED TO LARGE GOVN EXPENDITURES
ON PUBLIC WORKS, FINANCED BY BORROWING.
þ KEYNES: UNLESS SAVINGS CHANNELED BACK INTO STREAM
OF SPENDING --> TOTAL SPENDING FALL -->
UNEMPLOYMENT & STAGNATION --> REDUCE INCOMES -->
SAVINGS DECLINES --> SAVINGS & INVESTMENT COME
INTO BALANCE, HALTING FURTHER DECLINE IN TOTAL
SPENDING.
þ BUT THIS NEW EQUILIBRIUM MIGHT BE ESTABLISHED AT
A DEPRESSION LEVEL --> ECONOMY COULD STAGNATE
INDEFINITELY.
þ MULTIPLIER = RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ANY CHANGE IN
CONSUMPTION OR INVESTMENT AND THE LEVEL OF TOTAL
SPENDING.
þ KEYNES: INVESTMENT EXPENDITURE DEPENDS ON
EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN ON INVESTMENT & INTEREST
RATE.
þ IF BUSINESS FIRM EXPECTS 10 % RETURN
ON A
NEW INVESTMENT AND IS ABLE
TO BORROW AT 8 %
INTEREST, INVESTMENT SPENDING
WILL INCREASE.
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JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES: MOST INFLUENTIAL ECONOMIST
OF 20TH CENTURY [2]
þ KEYNES DID NOT THING MONETARY POLICY ALONE WAS
ENOUGH. FELT THAT MID 1930S NEEDED LARGE PROGRAM
OF PUBLIC WORKS FINANCED BY BORROWING:
þ WOULD ADD TO EMPLOYMENT
þ MULTIPLIER EFFECT OF INCREASED GOVN SPENDING
þ WOULD INCREASE INCOMES, SPENDING,
EMPLOYMENT
STILL FURTHER.
þ KEYNES DEVELOPED HIS EMPHASIS ON DEFICIT
FINANCING IN OPEN LETTER TO FDR IN NY TIMES IN
1933:
þ BECAME A MAJOR ELEMENT IN KEYNESIAN
PRESCRIPTION FOR ENDING THE
DEPRESSION.
þ KEYNES WORRIED ABOUT ABILITY OF MATURE ECONOMY ,
WHICH GENERATED MUCH SAVINGS, TO SUSTAIN HIGH
LEVEL OF INVESTMENT NECESSARY FOR FULL
EMPLOYMENT.
þ NEED TO STIMULATE MORE SPENDING. hOW?
þ ADVOCATED MORE EGALITARIAN DISTRIBUTION
OF
INCOME TO ACHIEVE BETTER ECONOMIC
HEALTH
OVER LONG RUN.
þ KEYNES DEVELOPED ECON POLICIES FOR 2ND HALF OF
20TH C., TO PROMOTE STABILITY & ECON. GROWTH:
þ MONETARY MANAGEMENT.
þ ACTIVE FISCAL POLICY [I.E. GOVN
SPENDING &
TAXING POLICIES].
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WHAT IS KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS?
þ KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS IS THE USE OF FISCAL [FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT SPENDING & TAXATION] AND MONETARY POLICY
TO SMOOTH OUT THE FLUCUATIONS IN THE BUSINESS
CYCLE.
þ SAID MORE BLUNTLY, KEYNESIANS WANT TO MESS AROUND
WITH FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING, THE LEVEL OF
FEDERAL TAXATION (INCREASE OR DECREASE THE FEDERAL
INCOME TAX), & THE MONEY SUPPLY TO EITHER SPEED UP
OR SLOW DOWN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY.
þ IN A RECESSION OR A DEPRESSION, KEYNESIANS WANT
TO ACTIVELY INTERVENE IN THE ECONOMY TO STIMULATE
BUSINESS ACTIVITY. SPECIFICALLY, THEY WOULD WANT
TO:
þ SIGNIFICANTLY STEP UP FEDERAL GOVN.
SPENDING
ON PUBLIC-WORKS CONSTRUCTION
PROJECTS;
þ CUT THE FEDERAL INCOME TAX RATE,
SO PEOPLE
HAVE MORE MONEY IN THEIR POCKET
TO SPEND ON
CONSUMER GOODS.
þ EXPAND THE MONEY SUPPLY, WHICH WOULD
ACT AS
A STIMULOUS TO BUSINESS ACTIVITY.
SUCH WOULD
ALSO LOWER INTEREST RATES,
MAKING IT EASIER
FOR BUSINESSES AND HOUSEHOLDS
TO BORROW
MONEY.
þ AND IN A BOOM PERIOD, THE KEYNESIANS WOULD ONCE
AGAIN WANT TO ACTIVELY INTERVENE IN THE ECONOMY TO
PREVENT IT FROM OVERHEATING [I.E. IF UNEMPLOYMENT
FALLS BELOW 4 %, SUCH COULD CREATE UPWARD PRESSURE
ON WAGE LEVELS, LEADING TO INFLATION].
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WHAT IS KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS? [C]
þ THUS, IN BOOM PERIODS, THE KEYNESIANS WOULD:
þ SLASH FEDERAL SPENDING ON PUBLIC-WORKS
PROJECTS;
þ INCREASE THE FEDERAL INCOME TAX RATES;
þ CONTRACT THE MONEY SUPPLY, FORCING
UP
INTEREST RATES, ETC.
þ THESE KEYNESIAN ECONOMIC POLICIES HAVE BEEN USED
BY MANY COUNTRIES SINCE 1936. AFTER THAT TIME,
KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS BECAME THE RAGE.
þ BUT KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS CAME UNDER SEVERE ATTACK
IN THE 1960S AND 1970S BY MILTON FRIEDMAN AND HIS
MONETARIST FOLLOWERS.
þ KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS IS GOOD ON PAPER, FRIEDMAN
FELT, BUT IN PRACTICE KEYNESIAN ACTIONS
[CONSTRUCTION SPENDING, TAX CUTS] ARE VERY
DIFFICULT TO TIME. THE END RESULT OF INTERVENTION
MAY BE THE REVERSE OF WHAT WAS INTENDED.
þ FOR INSTANCE, BY THE TIME A GOVN FIRES UP A
PUBLIC-WORKS CONSTRUCTION PROGRAM, THE RECESSION
MAY BE OVER AND THAT CONSTRUCTION MAY CAUSE AN
OVERHEATING OF THE ECONOMY. MEDICINE IS GOOD ONLY
IF IT IS ADMINISTERED AT THE PROPER TIME.
þ FRIEDMAN WANTS ONLY TO REGULATE THE MONEY SUPPLY.
EVEN THEN, HE DOESN'T WANT TO MAKE FINE
ADJUSTMENTS, BUT MERELY TO GROW THE MONEY SUPPLY AT
A STEADY AND LONGTERM RATE OF 3 TO 5 %/YR.
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